Are Texas major hurricanes dependent on an unusually warm Gulf? Also, the reasons why some systems intensify and others dont are not well understood. Michael Manns claim in The Guardian that its due to the jet stream being pushed farther north from global warming makes me think he doesnt actually follow weather like those of us who have actual schooling in meteorology (my degree is. Does global warming cause landfalling hurricanes to stall? Dissertation on the structure and energetics of incipient tropical cyclones, and have published a method for monitoring their strength from satellites). But once one forms, if it stalls near the coast (a rarity it can be expected to cause a flooding disasterespecially in a flood-prone area like Houston. August 2017 (through Aug. Its because hurricanes require a unique set of circumstances to occur, and sufficiently warm SSTs is only one. This is why the National Hurricane Center admits their predictions of intensity change are not that accurate.
These two factors have conspired to create the current flooding catastrophe in Houston. 28) surface temperature anomalies around North America (ncep CFSv2, courtesy of m).
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(courtesy of m ) and tell me, exactly what pattern here is due to global warming? As can be seen, major hurricanes dont really care whether the Gulf is above average or below average in temperature: Red dots indicate years of major hurricane strikes in Texas, plotted on average SST departures from normal by year over the western Gulf of Mexico. Have been less frequent in recent decades. While such an issue matters little to the people of Houston, it does matter for our future infrastructure planning and energy policy. But you also usually need a pre-existing cyclonic circulation or wave, which almost always can be traced back to the coast of Africa. We didnt have a warm August in the.S.